Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.418016 1.488549 1.561533 1.642868 1.731189 1.824428 1.930606
2025-10-26 1.309363 1.409000 1.516330 1.641208 1.783364 1.941187 2.131119
2025-11-02 1.236421 1.352603 1.481189 1.635320 1.816766 2.025796 2.288144
2025-11-09 1.170530 1.296428 1.438649 1.613084 1.823935 2.074191 2.399413
2025-11-16 1.115856 1.248408 1.400692 1.591090 1.826473 2.113161 2.497431
2025-11-23 1.079873 1.219460 1.382357 1.589744 1.851702 2.178891 2.631151
2025-11-30 1.054141 1.200793 1.374472 1.599418 1.889513 2.260906 2.790357
2025-12-07 1.017604 1.167026 1.346029 1.581037 1.889178 2.291670 2.880311
2025-12-14 0.979660 1.129817 1.311427 1.552594 1.873294 2.299479 2.936861
2025-12-21 0.950717 1.102535 1.287908 1.536904 1.872770 2.327070 3.022496
2025-12-28 0.937096 1.093727 1.287100 1.550341 1.911465 2.410394 3.196146
2026-01-04 0.920114 1.079903 1.279083 1.553444 1.935517 2.473580 3.343386
2026-01-11 0.906992 1.071020 1.277662 1.566051 1.974487 2.562333 3.541859
2026-01-18 0.888330 1.054366 1.265414 1.563242 1.991194 2.618906 3.693373
2026-01-25 0.869898 1.037330 1.251901 1.557827 2.003386 2.668719 3.837421
2026-02-01 0.846780 1.013424 1.228347 1.537243 1.991936 2.680648 3.915995
2026-02-08 0.825021 0.990697 1.205635 1.516872 1.979609 2.690036 3.990227
2026-02-15 0.811468 0.978455 1.196677 1.515625 1.995793 2.745689 4.154069
2026-02-22 0.802308 0.971765 1.194984 1.524587 2.027727 2.828713 4.378191
2026-03-01 0.784505 0.952962 1.176008 1.507556 2.018291 2.841776 4.466864
2026-03-08 0.764276 0.930419 1.151257 1.481184 1.992957 2.826210 4.496244
2026-03-15 0.748923 0.914169 1.134863 1.466629 1.985683 2.841139 4.589486
2026-03-22 0.743264 0.910983 1.136625 1.479095 2.022092 2.934286 4.857732